Today’s report on COVID-19 in King County | Thu May 7

King County Parks is reopening parks and trails tomorrow, May 8 following a six-week closure to slow the spread of COVID-19. Today, Public Health offered guidance for responsible recreational fishing as more public lands reopen for limited use.  Full post available on Public Health Insider here.

Otherwise, this daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center.  Thanks Will!

Public Health has updated the data dashboard.  As of 11:59 pm yesterday, May 6, there were 6,863 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 93 more than the previous day.  There have been 480 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases. 

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

The three graphs below chart new cases, total case count and the logarithmic trajectory of cases.

The first graph shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line).  The 93 cases reported today were all confirmed yesterday.  The 7-day average peaked at 191 on April 1 and has declined to 78, the same level it was on March 19. 

The second graph shows the total case count.  With 6,863 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.2%, slightly less than the 1.4% rate during the prior 7 days.  If we start with 6,863 cases, a 1.2% compound daily growth rate (1.198% to be precise) yields 82 new cases in a day, 597 new cases in a week, and 2,717 new cases in four weeks.  In order for the number of new cases per day to fall below 10, the compound daily growth rate will have to fall below 0.15%.  I don’t see this happening in the month of May considering how elongated the decline in the 7-day average has become (red line in the first graph).

The third graph shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis.  Each axis is on a logarithmic scale.  Each blue dot represents a daily report.  The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report.  Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows.  The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report.  We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.

Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments.  His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org

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